Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios

Rooftop Solar Adoption

Author:  Paidipati, J. | Frantzis, L. | Sawyer, H. | Kurrasch, A.

Organization:  National Renewable Energy Laboratory | Navigant Consulting

Report Date: 2008

Summary: 

The NREL study models market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics in the United States in a variety of scenarios and on a state-by-state basis for years 2007 to 2015. The report found significant potential for rooftop solar in the United States in terms of potential cumulative installations and contributions to future US capacity requirements.

Key Take-Aways: 

  • If all utilities offered a Time of Use Rate structure, then some utilities would see increased implementation but others would see lower annual electric bill savings as a result of lower electric bills. Therefore, offering Terms of Use Rates nationwide would increase the simple payback for rooftop solar and decrease market penetration.
  • The report found that cumulative rooftop solar installations can more than double by 2015 in a base case scenario.

Key Facts: 

  • The report found roof solar installations would increase by 60% if states with interconnection standards classified as “poor” or below improved their interconnection standards.
  • The solar rooftop cumulative additions summarized in the report can contribute between 27% and 91% to planned capacity additions determined by the US Energy Information Administration. 

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